Shawn Tully
October 4, 2024
Data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that, he says, is far more reliable than the polling that's constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on Nov. 5. Instead, the Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but the one they expect to win. This writer began following Miller's predictions during the 2020 White House contest, and the two Georgia Senate races that followed in early January of 2021. Miller called the former within 12 electoral votes, and correctly posited that the Democrats would sweep both Senate seats when the polls showed the Republicans significantly ahead. His calls for the margins of victory proved right on the mark.
Given Miller's excellent record in the 2020 cycle, it's highly instructive to examine his outlook for this year's race. And as in the case of the Georgia runoffs, his view is shockingly contrarian: While most pundits and prognosticators see a "dead heat" or "toss-up," Miller's numbers show the Harris-Walz ticket far in the lead and the wide Democrat advantage settling into a remarkably stable pattern.
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